open access publication

Article, 2024

Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, ISSN 2054-5703, 2054-5703, Volume 11, 2, 10.1098/rsos.231462

Contributors

Cheeseman, Ted 0000-0002-5805-2431 (Corresponding author) [1] [2] Barlow, Jay [3] Acebes, Jo Marie [4] Audley, Katherina [5] Bejder, Lars [6] [7] Birdsall, Caitlin [8] Bracamontes, Olga Solis [9] Bradford, Amanda L. [10] Byington, Josie [11] Calambokidis, John [12] Cartwright, Rachel [13] [14] [15] Cedarleaf, Jen [16] [17] Chavez, Andrea Jacqueline Garcia 0000-0002-1338-4758 [5] Currie, Jens [18] De Castro, Rouenne Camille [4] De Weerdt, Joelle [19] [20] Doe, Nicole [8] Doniol-Valcroze, Thomas 0000-0002-6852-6047 [21] Dracott, Karina [22] Filatova, Olga [23] Finn, Rachel [10] Flynn, Kiirsten R. [12] Ford, John [21] Frisch-Jordan, Astrid [24] Gabriele, Chris 0000-0002-1229-1891 [25] [26] Goodwin, Beth [27] Hayslip, Craig [3] Hildering, Jackie [8] Hill, Marie C. [6] [7] [10] Jacobsen, Jeff K. [28] Jimenez-Lopez, M. Esther 0000-0002-9932-5184 [29] Jones, Meagan [30] Kobayashi, Nozomi [31] Lammers, Marc [10] Lyman, Edward [10] Malleson, Mark [32] Mamaev, Evgeny [33] Loustalot, Pamela Martinez [29] Masterman, Annie [10] [34] Matkin, Craig O. [35] McMillan, Christie [8] [21] Moore, Jeff [10] Moran, John [10] [34] Neilson, Janet L. [26] Newell, Hayley [2] Okabe, Haruna [31] Olio, Marilia [2] Ortega-Ortiz, Christian D. [36] Pack, Adam A. [6] [37] [38] Palacios, Daniel M. [3] Pearson, Heidi [16] [17] Quintana-Rizzo, E. [39] Barragan, Raul Ramirez 0000-0001-5793-6115 [5] Ransome, Nicola 0000-0002-3130-3966 [40] Rosales-Nanduca, Hiram [29] Sharpe, Fred [41] [42] Shaw, Tasli [43] Southerland, Ken [2] Stack, Stephanie [18] Staniland, Iain [44] Straley, Janice [16] [17] Szabo, Andrew [45] Teerlink, Suzie [10] [46] Titova, Olga [47] [48] [49] Urban-Ramirez, Jorge [29] van Aswegen, Martin 0000-0001-6180-967X [6] [7] Vinicius, Marcel [2] von Ziegesar, Olga [50] Witteveen, Briana [17] [51] Wray, Janie [52] Yano, Kymberly [6] [7] [10] Yegin, Igor [2] [53] Zwiefelhofer, Denny [2] Clapham, Phil [54]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Southern Cross Univ, Marine Ecol Res Ctr, Lismore, NSW, Australia
    2. [NORA names: Australia; Oceania; OECD];
  2. [2] Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA 95062 USA
    3. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];
  3. [3] Oregon State Univ, Marine Mammal Inst, Newport, OR USA
    4. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];
  4. [4] BALYENA ORG, Jagna 6308, Bohol, Philippines
    5. [NORA names: Philippines; Asia, South];
  5. [5] Whales Guerrero, Portland, OR USA
    6. [NORA names: United States; America, North; OECD];

Abstract

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (+/- 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (+/- 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (+/- 4455) to 26 662 (+/- 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

Keywords

abundance estimation, carrying capacity, climate change, environmental variables, marine heatwave, mark-recapture modelling

Data Provider: Clarivate

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