Article, 2024

Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions

SIAM-ASA JOURNAL ON UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION, ISSN 2166-2525, Volume 12, 2, Pages 242-261, 10.1137/23M1548049

Contributors

Curran-Sebastian, Jacob (Corresponding author) [1] Pellis, Lorenzo [2] Hall, Ian [2] House, Thomas [2]

Affiliations

  1. [1] Univ Copenhagen, Sect Epidemiol, DK-1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
  2. [NORA names: KU University of Copenhagen; University; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD];
  3. [2] Univ Manchester, Dept Math, Manchester M13 9PL, England
  4. [NORA names: United Kingdom; Europe, Non-EU; OECD]

Abstract

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Keywords

branching processes, first passage time distribution, outbreak, stochastic transmission model, uncertainty quantification

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